You got too much gold, too many crafting mats lying around and wonder how you can get rid of them as fast as possible without any chance of profit? Of course you can always just throw it on the ground (well actually you can’t, but I’m sure you get the image), but it’s much more fun to waste it while thinking you got a chance to make it back. Enter: Haedrig Eamon, the blacksmith. Here’s what you do:
I – Level up your Blacksmith
Level your blacksmith to max level. It’ll net you a nice achievement and cost you a good bunch of gold, pages and tomes.
II – Visit the auction house
There’re a few one-hand weapons available to you. You want one that offers six affix rolls. Not cause they offer the highest chance of actually giving you a few useful stats on your weapons, but because those are the most expensive
ones. Right now a sword seems the best option. It doesn’t only offer the fastest attack speed, but is about twice as expensive as the other weapons.
III – Craft
Log onto one of your mule characters and create as much swords as you can. If you have more gold than base material, buy some more on the auction house. The more swords you build, the higher your chance’ll be to get a roll that allows you to sell the sword for a tenth of what you paid to build it. Probability and stuff.
IV – No profit
You got it! By now you should’ve burnt several million gold to see, if crafting six affix items to get rich in Diablo 3 is viable and you can – through your test data alone – be absolutely sure, that it’s not.
So yes dear diary, that’s how I spent the first part of my day. But maybe I was just unlucky. Maybe you’ll have to create much more items to make it work. Maybe I can just put another few millions into… wait! Let’s do the math.
D3Inferno has a nice database providing me with all possible variables that go into creating a Conquest Sword. Unfortunately the whole item creation process isn’t really well documented, so I’ll have to make a few assumptions to make my third grade math calculations work. But I don’t really mind.
I – The naked sword
A best “naked” Conquest Sword has a max DPS of 216.3 DPS, doing 93-216 Damage with 1.40 Attack per Second. I can work with that.
II – Adding affixes
There’re four affix groups the sword takes its stats from. It looks like it always chooses one damage modificator from “Swing” (with a few exceptions) and one mainstat from “GenericSwingWeapon”. This leaves us with four random affixes. To get maximum DPS (and let’s be honest here – that’s what counts, if you actually want to sell your weapons) we’ll need the “Attacks_Per-Second_Item_Percent” and “Damage_Weapon_Percent_Bonus” mods – as high as possible. At item level 62 the maximum values of those two affixes are 9% and 40%. The highest additional damage we get from “MinMaxDam” or his elemental friends is +224-298 damage.
III – Do the math, Part 1
Thankfully we all know how to calculate weapon DPS in Diablo 3. We take our basic stats and add the additional damage, bringing us to 317 to 514 damage per hit, averaging at 415.5 damage per attack and 581.7 damage per second. Well that’s a fairly small number. Let’s add 40% additional damage to that. Our new sword does 443.8 – 719.6 damage, 581.7 damage per attack and 814.4 dps. Now that’s not too bad. And let’s not forget we got a last ace up our sleeves: increased attack speed. Now, after we add 9% increased attack speed, our final item looks a little like this:
443.8 – 719.6 Damage
1.526 Attacks per Second
Ok. That’s cool. It’s not top of its class, but this sword can definitely sell for a few hundred thousand gold on the auction house. Perfect. Let’s visit my blacksmith and… wait! Those stats are for the best possible Exalted Grand Conquest Sword you can craft in Diablo 3. But how high is the chance you’ll actually get those stats on the sword?
IV – Do the math, Part 2
Like already mentioned, we take the Swing and GenericSwingWeapon Affix Groups as a given. This brings us down to four rolls. Ignoring the “ResistFreeze”, “ResistRoot”, “ResistStun” and “ResistStunRootFreeze” groups D3Inferno lists, but I’ve never seen on a weapon, brings us down to 20 possible affix groups on our sword. Now with every roll this group gets smaller, adding up to a 21.71% chance of having one of the two affixes we want (+Damage% and +AttackSpeed%) on our item. But we don’t just want one. If we assume that one affix slot is used by the already present first affix, we get to a 16.71% chance for the second affix to be on our item – and a 3.62% chance that both affixes appear on our item. That’s not so bad. It means that if I craft 1000 items, an average 36 of them will net me around a mill. Let’s go over to my blacksm… I said wait!
V – Do the math, Part 3
It gets more interesting. We all know that Diablo 3 is random times random to the power of random. Here’s the catch: It’s not enough for us to get the two affixes we’re looking for. We want the highest possible roll. So how high’s the chance here? I’ll make it quick. Our chances of getting the best possible roll on the affixes is 3.33% for damage percentage, 5.55% for the attack speed increase and 0.01% (rounded up) for the additional damage. If you multiply those with each other, add Pi and swirl them through a few years of not listening to your math teacher, you end up with the probability of a perfectly rolled Exalted Grand Conquest Sword, which is still only a measly below 900 DPS weapon.
It’s roughly 0.0000006690303%
There you have it. Bigger than your chances of winning the lottery. So go ahead. Try it.